Forgot about this thread.
Had Belgium TT Over 2.5 +100 (1U) and Belgium -2 (-105) 2U
England/Tunisia UNDER 2,2.5 (-120)
2 winners and a brutal beat.
Here are a few plays that are overlays based on implied odds and consensus odds for Tuesday.
Japan +383
Implied odds are 20.7% with a consensus of 23%. Some value with Japan.
DRAW +262
Implied odds 27.6% with consensus at 29% small overlay.
Japan should win or draw 52% of the time based on consensus. Playing each for 1U represents value. Play Japan +383 and DRAW +262
Russia +113
Russia 56% consensus with implied odds of 46.9%, solid value for the home team. Play Russia +113
Had Belgium TT Over 2.5 +100 (1U) and Belgium -2 (-105) 2U
England/Tunisia UNDER 2,2.5 (-120)
2 winners and a brutal beat.
Here are a few plays that are overlays based on implied odds and consensus odds for Tuesday.
Japan +383
Implied odds are 20.7% with a consensus of 23%. Some value with Japan.
DRAW +262
Implied odds 27.6% with consensus at 29% small overlay.
Japan should win or draw 52% of the time based on consensus. Playing each for 1U represents value. Play Japan +383 and DRAW +262
Russia +113
Russia 56% consensus with implied odds of 46.9%, solid value for the home team. Play Russia +113
Implied odds is the probability that team wins based on the odds. Consensus odds is the probability based on Power Index ratings, roster ratings, offensive and defensive ratings.
When the Consensus odds are higher than Implied odds, we have value.
Wednesday, June 20
Portugal -153
Implied Odds 60.47%, Consensus Odds 54%
Morocco +560
Implied Odds 15.15%, Consensus Odds 18%.
DRAW +271
Implied Odds 26.95%, Consensus Odds 28%
No value on Portugal, a little on the Draw. Morocco does offer some value at +560. Morocco +560/DRAW +271 would be the play.
Uruguay -556
Implied Odds 84.76%, Consensus Odds 75%
Saudi Arabia +1700
Implied Odds 5.56%, Consensus Odds 7%
DRAW +550
Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 18%
No value on Uruguay, slight value on Saudi Arabia, DRAW offers value at +550. I would weight any wager here 25% SA +1700/75% DRAW +550.
Spain -500
Implied Odds 83.33%, Consensus Odds 76%
Iran +1550
Implied Odds 6.06%, Consensus Odds 7%
DRAW +550
Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 17%
Again the favorite is an underlay with no value. Iran a small overlay, and the DRAW offering some value. DRAW +550/Iran +1550. 80/20 split on the bet.
When the Consensus odds are higher than Implied odds, we have value.
Wednesday, June 20
Portugal -153
Implied Odds 60.47%, Consensus Odds 54%
Morocco +560
Implied Odds 15.15%, Consensus Odds 18%.
DRAW +271
Implied Odds 26.95%, Consensus Odds 28%
No value on Portugal, a little on the Draw. Morocco does offer some value at +560. Morocco +560/DRAW +271 would be the play.
Uruguay -556
Implied Odds 84.76%, Consensus Odds 75%
Saudi Arabia +1700
Implied Odds 5.56%, Consensus Odds 7%
DRAW +550
Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 18%
No value on Uruguay, slight value on Saudi Arabia, DRAW offers value at +550. I would weight any wager here 25% SA +1700/75% DRAW +550.
Spain -500
Implied Odds 83.33%, Consensus Odds 76%
Iran +1550
Implied Odds 6.06%, Consensus Odds 7%
DRAW +550
Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 17%
Again the favorite is an underlay with no value. Iran a small overlay, and the DRAW offering some value. DRAW +550/Iran +1550. 80/20 split on the bet.
1-0 losses yesterday, Iran had a great chance to get a tie in that game.
Thursday, June 21
Argentina +112
Implied Odds 47.17%, Consensus Odds 40%
Croatia +320
Implied Odds 23.81%, Consensus 29%
DRAW +232
Implied Odds 30.12%, Consensus 31%
Croatia has solid value to win with a Consensus of 29%, Draw very slight. Combined they have a 60% chance to Win/Draw, making a bet on both a good bet. Either outcomes gets you profit. A win gets +2.2 units and a Draw gets +1.32 units.
Taking Croatia to Win and Draw.
Thursday, June 21
Argentina +112
Implied Odds 47.17%, Consensus Odds 40%
Croatia +320
Implied Odds 23.81%, Consensus 29%
DRAW +232
Implied Odds 30.12%, Consensus 31%
Croatia has solid value to win with a Consensus of 29%, Draw very slight. Combined they have a 60% chance to Win/Draw, making a bet on both a good bet. Either outcomes gets you profit. A win gets +2.2 units and a Draw gets +1.32 units.
Taking Croatia to Win and Draw.
Croatia with the resounding 3-0 win. The win offered huge value at +320, one of the best value plays of the week.
After getting their asses kicked, Argentina resorted to the bitch tactics so many from that region do when getting thumped. Kicking a ball into the head of a defender after you fouled him, shoulda been a red card. Good riddance Argentina.
After getting their asses kicked, Argentina resorted to the bitch tactics so many from that region do when getting thumped. Kicking a ball into the head of a defender after you fouled him, shoulda been a red card. Good riddance Argentina.
Just did the numbers, one game has value.
Brazil/Costa Rica: no value
Nigeria/Iceland: Small value Iceland
Serbia +165: Consensus Odds 30%, Implied Odds 37.74%
Switzerland +190: Consensus Odds 42%, Implied Odds 34.48%
DRAW +200: Consensus Odds 28%, Implied Odds 31.85%
Switzerland is the clear value in this game at +190.
The conservative play is Switzerland/Draw which has a Consensus 70%. The return is .9 if Switzerland wins, 1 if its a Draw.
1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game.
Brazil/Costa Rica: no value
Nigeria/Iceland: Small value Iceland
Serbia +165: Consensus Odds 30%, Implied Odds 37.74%
Switzerland +190: Consensus Odds 42%, Implied Odds 34.48%
DRAW +200: Consensus Odds 28%, Implied Odds 31.85%
Switzerland is the clear value in this game at +190.
The conservative play is Switzerland/Draw which has a Consensus 70%. The return is .9 if Switzerland wins, 1 if its a Draw.
1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game.
I got them from the projections on the fivethirtyeight.com site.
They give a breakdown on how they get their consensus odds and it makes a lot of sense to me.
From there you take the consensus odds, and compare them to the implied odds. When you get an overlay, you bet.
Haven't seen this for other sports on a daily basis.
I reference Sports Insights for NFL wagers for futures. Last year they had a mid season article on division winners, they went 4-0. Also had an article at the start of NFL playoffs that went very well. Its just a tool to find value.
They give a breakdown on how they get their consensus odds and it makes a lot of sense to me.
From there you take the consensus odds, and compare them to the implied odds. When you get an overlay, you bet.
Haven't seen this for other sports on a daily basis.
I reference Sports Insights for NFL wagers for futures. Last year they had a mid season article on division winners, they went 4-0. Also had an article at the start of NFL playoffs that went very well. Its just a tool to find value.
BTW, the Fox World Cup coverage is awful.
Rob Stone is terrible at everything he does. The "experts" on the set offer little, and seems like they were pulled off the street. The banter sounds forced and awkward. No chemistry at all.
The game announcers aren't much better, although there was one game earlier this week with a couple guys that were really good. I believe they were not American announcers, maybe the Peru game, but outstanding.
Fox is regularly shitty at everything. They try and be cute and funny, they come off as smarmy and square.
BTW, that music they play in and out of commercials......terrible.
Its just an awful production, which is too bad because this tournament can be riveting theater...despite the abundance of low scoring games so far.
Rob Stone is terrible at everything he does. The "experts" on the set offer little, and seems like they were pulled off the street. The banter sounds forced and awkward. No chemistry at all.
The game announcers aren't much better, although there was one game earlier this week with a couple guys that were really good. I believe they were not American announcers, maybe the Peru game, but outstanding.
Fox is regularly shitty at everything. They try and be cute and funny, they come off as smarmy and square.
BTW, that music they play in and out of commercials......terrible.
Its just an awful production, which is too bad because this tournament can be riveting theater...despite the abundance of low scoring games so far.
"Switzerland is the clear value in this game at +190.
1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game."
Switzerland comes through at nearly 2/1. Very entertaining game.
I'll run the numbers for Saturday when I get a chance.
1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game."
Switzerland comes through at nearly 2/1. Very entertaining game.
I'll run the numbers for Saturday when I get a chance.
Saturday, June 23
Belgium -271
Consensus 76%, Implied 73.05%
Tunisia +900
Consensus 8%, Implied 10%
DRAW +350
Consensus 16%, Implied 22.22%
Belgium as a -271 favorite actually offers value at that price.
South Korea +500
Consensus 19%, Implied 16.67%
Mexico -142
Consensus 55%, Implied 58.6%
DRAW +245
Consensus 26%, Implied 28.88
South Korea a bit of value at +550. South Korea/DRAW combined has Consensus 45%, making a combo play of Side/Draw appealing also. With the Draw not offering value by itself, going for the upset may be the way to go. A more conservative approach would be to split the bet. Depends on your risk tolerance.
Germany -197
Consensus 58%, Implied 66.33%
Sweden +550
Consensus 18%, Implied 15.38%
DRAW +330
Consensus 24%, Implied 23.26
Another under valued dog according to the Consensus odds. Sweden offers value at that price. With a 42% consensus for a combined Side/Draw, and the Draw offering value also, a split bet isn't a bad option at all.
Belgium -271
Consensus 76%, Implied 73.05%
Tunisia +900
Consensus 8%, Implied 10%
DRAW +350
Consensus 16%, Implied 22.22%
Belgium as a -271 favorite actually offers value at that price.
South Korea +500
Consensus 19%, Implied 16.67%
Mexico -142
Consensus 55%, Implied 58.6%
DRAW +245
Consensus 26%, Implied 28.88
South Korea a bit of value at +550. South Korea/DRAW combined has Consensus 45%, making a combo play of Side/Draw appealing also. With the Draw not offering value by itself, going for the upset may be the way to go. A more conservative approach would be to split the bet. Depends on your risk tolerance.
Germany -197
Consensus 58%, Implied 66.33%
Sweden +550
Consensus 18%, Implied 15.38%
DRAW +330
Consensus 24%, Implied 23.26
Another under valued dog according to the Consensus odds. Sweden offers value at that price. With a 42% consensus for a combined Side/Draw, and the Draw offering value also, a split bet isn't a bad option at all.
